The original of this post – Thoughts From The Lockdown – was shared on 2nd May 2020. In that post I expressed my contempt for the catastrophising of the media and the desperate neediness and narcissism of so many ‘celebrities.’ I also made the less-than-breathtaking observation that the super-rich have done very nicely out of the current crisis.
At the time of writing, there have been 7,060 cases of Covid19 in Australia and 99 deaths; in the UK, the figures are 246,406 and 34,796. Worldwide there have been 320,180 deaths linked to the virus.
Worrying, yes. But do they justify the current response(s) from various world governments?
“There are lies, damned lies and statistics” is a phrase often attributed to nineteenth-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. It was popularised in the United States by, among others, Mark Twain. It is apt for the figures I’ve already shared and those I’m about to share. But does anyone really trust any figures from the Chinese Communist Party or from Vlad the Heterosexual’s petro-gangster state?
There are currently 7.8billion people in the world and 3billion of them – 40% – do not have access to running water. That’s a telling statistic when we are told constantly to wash our hands to avoid spreading the virus.
An even more interesting statistic is that the entire continent of Africa, with a population of 1.3billion, has just 20,000 intensive care beds or 1.7 beds per 100,000 people. This compares to 3.6 in China and 29.4 in the USA.
Many of the world’s poorest countries are already affected by major communicable diseases. In 2018, there were 228million cases of malaria worldwide and 405,000 deaths, mostly African children. Tuberculosis (TB) is even worse – 1.5million died of TB in 2018, the largest number of cases in India. Ebola and HIV-AIDS continue to be a problem. It would be a terrible irony if the resources devoted to Covid19 caused the death rebate for these, far worse, diseases to rise.
It’s not just the health implications of the lockdown. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has estimated that up to 81% of the world’s workforce have been affected by the lockdown and most of these people work in the ‘informal’ economy, either as casual labourers or self-employed at a very small scale. The World Food Programme estimates that acute hunger is set to almost double from 135million to 265million people by the end of 2020.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that economic output in advanced countries will contract by 6% this year. This will have a major impact on countries that export raw materials; the price of oil, for example, went into negative territory for a time. Countries that rely on tourism will also suffer – tourist numbers are expected to fall by 60-80% this year. Already in the first quarter of 2020, there have been 67million fewer international tourist arrivals and $80billion lost in export earnings.
I’ve shared what some may consider irrelevant or even erroneous statistics. Perhaps the specific figures I’ve shared will turn out to be wrong. Whatever the final outcome(s) of this crisis it is clear that it will have an enormous impact for many years to come, often on those least able to cope. And some of the impacts are already here – the charity Blood Cancer UK has data that suggests that within the least two months urgent referrals for cancer tests and diagnoses have fallen by an average of 76% in some areas.
What really surprises me is how many folks who are quick to proclaim themselves ‘progressive’ and ‘caring’ are some of the biggest supporters of this lockdown. It is all very well for well-heeled eco-fanatics to wax lyrical about the canals of Venice and aircraft-free skies. But we are in for one Hell of a bumpy landing once the bills for this unprecedented halt in economic activity start rolling in.
Mike's Place 
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