Thoughts From The Lockdown Update #3

Fortunately, the town where I live in Central Queensland is not subject to any special Covid19 measures. As I type these words, the county of my birth and the city where I spent more than a decade of my teaching career are both subject to so-called ‘Tier 2’ restrictions.

In the 1977 Dr Who story The Sunmakers…

…the population of Earth has been moved to Pluto after the collapse of the planet’s ecosystem. To keep the people docile and easy to dominate, the alien race that controls Pluto pumps the atmosphere full of a chemical that induces anxiety. Even Leela, the Doctor’s minimally-clothed assistant, is affected.

Have we reached a stage where the fear of Covid19 is not worse than the illness itself?

At his first inauguration in March 1933 as the 32nd President of the United States, Franklin D. Roosevelt commented…

“Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyses needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigour has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory.”

In the fourth century BC, Aristotle, pupil of Plato and tutor to Alexander the Great, said…

“…fear may be defined as a pain or disturbance… due to a mental picture of some destructive or painful evil in the future.”

He counselled that the antidote to fear was “confidence” in…

“…the nearness of what keeps us safe [and] …the absence or remoteness of what is terrible.”

From that nest of Ukippers, racists and Islamophobes at Jimmy Savile House…

“The average age at death for those who died with Covid-19 in Scotland was 79 for men and 84 for women. Elsewhere in the NRS report it showed that life expectancy in Scotland is 77.1 for males and 81.1 for females.” See here.

If I was feeling facetious, I would point out that the vast majority of people who die from Covid19 are statistically already dead.

From the Federal Department of Health in Australia (see here)…

From the USA…

No, I am not suggesting we do nothing. No, I am not suggesting Covid19 is a plot. No, I am not suggesting we “kill grandma” as stated by chocolate teapot Matt Hancock. I am suggesting balance, a risk assessment if you will.

Many years ago, when I was a young teacher (early 1990s) I recall an older teacher who told me about an incident when he led a school ski trip in the 1960s. It was too foggy to ski and the kids were bored so he got a bunch of bin liners and they used them to go tobogganing. No-one was hurt and everyone had a good time. Fast forward to the late 1990s/early 2000s and the teaching unions were telling members never to go on ski trips as the risk of injury and being sued was too great. The British Olympic Association lamented the demise of the school ski trip as it was the first time most skiers got a chance to try Winter sports.

In the mid 1990s, I took over running my school’s Summer Term trip to France and Belgium. I had been in charge of the trip for several years when the deputy head asked me to fill out a risk assessment booklet (booklet not form!) for the trip. I recall laughing as I thought it was a joke. I was forced to spend a great deal of time completing a risk assessment for a group of fourteen year olds to sit on a coach, travel on a ferry and go to public sites visited by thousands every year.

Leading a trip at a school in Australia, I filled out a risk assessment for an activity where for the first time I had to put the risk as ‘catastrophic’ – ie: people could die. However, by writing down that everyone had to wear the safety equipment provided at the activity reduced said risk to ‘minimal.’

All the points made in the preceding three paragraphs are anecdotal and some details may be misremembered. All I am saying is that a risk assessment depends on viewing both the positives and negatives of any decision.

Two further examples. York University was ridiculed this week for telling its students to wait a minute to evacuate if they hear a firebell (see here). There’s a lawsuit waiting to happen. Meanwhile in Liverpool (currently under the highest Tier 3 restrictions) a gym whose owner refused to close (see here) was raided by armed police!

Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York State, has said that if lockdowns “save even one life” they will be worthwhile. This is patently absurd. Even if Covid19 had a death rate of 1% (unlikely) then it would be unconscionable to destroy the lives of 99 people to save the life of one person. As Jeremy Bentham said public policy should aim for “the greatest happiness of the greatest number.”

Previous posts on this topic…

May 2020: Thoughts From the Lockdown

May 2020: Thoughts From the Lockdown Update

June 2020: Thoughts From the Lockdown Update #2